Contest Of Fine Margins Between BJP, Trinamool In Bengal

Kolkata: West Bengal’s 42 seats make it the third-largest contributor of MPs to the Lok Sabha but what has made the state even more important and interesting in these Lok Sabha elections is the keenly fought contest between the Trinamool Congress and the BJP, with neither side willing to give any quarter. 

At NDTV’s special show ‘Battleground’ on Saturday, hosted by Editor-in-Chief Sanjay Pugalia, a panel of experts and spokespersons from the BJP and TMC dissected every issue that could play a role in either party getting an upper hand and also shared their thoughts on what drives violence during elections in West Bengal  

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee – and a Presidential-style contest between – them dominated the discussion, the two other main points that got a lot of attention were the Sandeshkhali controversy and the welfare push by both parties. 

Everyone, barring the spokespersons of course, seemed to agree that the contest in the state is going to be a neck and neck one and the battle is going to be one of fine margins.

Of the state’s 42 seats, 22 were won by the Trinamool Congress in 2019 and the BJP had made huge inroads and achieved victory in 18. Far from resting on its laurels, the BJP has been relentless in its quest to increase its vote share since then. but the Trinamool Congress has also fought tooth and nail to hold on to its turf.

Pointing to how razor-thin the margins are in the state, Sanjay Kumar, Professor at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) said, “West Bengal is a state where the regional party is very strong but the BJP is putting up a fierce contest. The BJP has defeated the Congress in many states but it seems to be on the back foot when it comes to contesting against regional parties, but Bengal is an exception. I think there is a neck-and-neck fight. This is a battleground in the real sense.”

“There is a contest in every seat. In 2019, the difference in vote share between the parties was just three per cent. The difference in seats was also of only four. If the votes swing by 2 per cent either way… if the BJP’s vote share goes up by 2-3 per cent, the TMC can lose 7-8 seats and if the opposite happens and the BJP loses 4-5 per cent of votes it can be reduced to single digits,” he said.

Adding to this point, political strategist Amitabh Tiwari said there were 22 seats in 2019 where the margin of victory was less than 10% or 1 lakh votes – and these were split evenly between the TMC and the BJP. “So there is definitely a ‘kaante ki takkar’ (a neck-and-neck-fight) and this has become a seat by seat contest,” he said. 

‘Violence Vitiates Society’

Mr Pugalia pointed out there is a dichotomy in the sense that while Bengal is considered a leader in terms of culture and self-respect it is also one of the most violent states when it comes to political violence. To this, political analyst Swapan Dasgupta said the violence is a legacy of the Left, which ruled Bengal for decades and even the Trinamool was a victim of this when it was fighting the CPM.

“Some of those rough-and-ready methods, unfortunately, have become the new normal in West Bengal and I think this is something that, regardless of which side you prefer, there has to be unanimity on stopping the violence. This vitiates society,” he said.

Pointing to an interesting statistic, Mr Dasgupta said no national party has ever won a majority of seats in the Lok Sabha from West Bengal in 1971. He also said that caste, in addition to  class – which was the CPM’s dominant narrative – has also made an entry in Bengal in 2019. 

How Important Is Sandeshkhali?

Asked how important a role the issue of Sandeshkhali, where there have been allegations of land grab, rape and sexual harassment against a Trinamool strongman – now suspended – and his aides will be in the elections, Amitabh Tiwari said this depends on how much the BJP can make it pervade the public consciousness. 

“In 2019, Mamata Banerjee and the TMC had more of a lead against the BJP among women voters than among men. The lead was roughly 4 per cent among women as against 2 per cent  among men. This issue could become important because support among women has been a strong point of the TMC,” he said.  

The mention of Sandeshkhali sparked a heated debate between TMC Spokesperson Riju Dutta and BJP Spokesperson and West Bengal State Secretary Priyanka Tibrewal, especially since Saturday was when a sting video by a private channel went viral in which a BJP leader purportedly says that no rapes or sexual harassment had taken place and women were convinced to file such complaints at the directions of senior party leader Suvendu Adhikari.

The BJP leader, Gangadhar Koyal, has claimed that his voice was edited and has also sent a complaint to the CBI.

Firing the first volley, Mr Dutta said the BJP has “never understood and will never understand the diverse, pluralistic, democratic ethos of Bengal”. 

“In a sting, a BJP block president is saying that the party’s Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari has paid Rs 2,000 to these women to file fake rape cases dating 7-8 months back. Can you imagine what a concocted conspiracy this is to defame Bengal. The BJP can debate till the cows come home that this is morphed but this is what their leaders are saying,” he said.

Ms Tibrewal countered that Mamata Banerjee had initially said that the victims were lying and alleged the Trinamool Congress may have spent a lot of money to make sure the video went viral. 

“The court has asked the CBI to probe this (Sandeshkhali allegations) and, in a hearing on Thursday, said there are similarities between the CBI report and the victims’ affidavits. This shows that such incidents have taken place there.  At least 750 affidavits were given and the TMC wants to say 750 people are lying. Mamata Banerjee’s talk of nari shakti (women power) stands exposed today,” she said.